Potential Impact Assessment of Climate Change on Food Security in Niger Basin Countries using Panel ARDL Analysis

Document Type : Original Article

Author

قسم السياسة والاقتصاد كلية الدراسات الأفريقية العليا- جامعة القاهرة

Abstract

This paper aimed at investigating the impact of climate change on food security in 9 African countries in Niger Basin. It collected data from World Development Indicators (WDI), over the period of 1990–2021. It looked at how climate change affected the four dimensions of food security (food availability, food accessibility, food utilization, and food stability) in Niger Basin countries through four econometric models. The paper applied Panel Ordinary least squares estimate, utilized the panel unit root test using Fisher-ADF test, then estimated the pool mean group (PMG) panel autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) in the four models in the long run, short run and the cointegrating term at a country level.
Results indicated that climate change affected the four dimensions of food security in Niger Basin countries. For food availability, climate change is widely believed to reduce crop yields. as well as the impacts of extreme climate events on food accessibility. The changes in production systems induced by climate change may cause consequent changes in dietary patterns and food utilization. Climate change will also influence the stability and resilience of food systems.
This paper has not only tested the impact of climate change on the Niger Basin countries as a group, but also it tested its effect at the country level. It has been concluded that the climatic variables have varying effects across the countries of the Basin.

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